How accurate is a 10 day weather forecast?
Feb 12, 2021 20:31:08 #
Able Man
Loc: North Coast (Cleveland, Ohio)
D Ryb wrote:
Told or untold bet it’s a good story
Too complicated a story, to peck out with 1 finger, on this Obamaphone. Plus, this was WAAaaay back, in the late 1970's... Some things are just better off left alone!
Feb 12, 2021 20:32:53 #
captjim
Loc: Antioch Ca
Able Man wrote:
Too complicated a story, to peck out with 1 finger, on this Obamaphone. Plus, this was WAAaaay back, in the late 1970's... Some things are just better off left alone!
Let sleeping dogs lie??
Feb 12, 2021 20:36:15 #
Feb 12, 2021 20:36:59 #
Feb 12, 2021 23:48:02 #
panther
Loc: Northern California
Sometimes travel to other parts of the state to fish for a week or so. These sites are in mountainous areas. I check the weather before I go, because I don't want thunderstorms or snow day after day. I never trust a weather forecast more than four days out. I would rather not go than be stuck and "hunkered down" waiting out days of stormy weather.
Feb 13, 2021 08:47:09 #
Sam Clark
Loc: Augusta, Ga
FS Digest wrote:
A good friend of mine is coming down from the coast guard and I wanted to take him fishing on the 18th and 19th. It says 20-30 MPH wind on the 18th and quite a bit of rain on the 19th. Anyone have any idea how spot on that tends to be? Won’t make for good fishing obviously lol.
Edit- Sarasota, Fl I’m sure everywhere is a little different.
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by Ryansm19
Edit- Sarasota, Fl I’m sure everywhere is a little different.
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by Ryansm19
10 days out, that often changes
Feb 13, 2021 10:09:19 #
Mauwehu
Loc: Norwalk Ct
I noticed the forecasts these days are more accurate than years ago. Rain seems to come sooner than forecasted or not at all. Prayer can work. I had a stag for my son outside with a100% chance of rain. My father in law called to ask what I was going to do, my answer was it’s not going to rain at my house. Party came and ended without rain. My father in law called me the next day and said.....that was strange that it didn’t rain. I know people who live all around you and it rained at their houses.
Feb 13, 2021 11:25:26 #
Feb 13, 2021 12:16:11 #
When I was in the U.S. Navy I briefly studied aerography ( weather ). I concluded their accuracy used the 50% diminishing rule. If you asked them what the weather is now they will give you a 100% accurate reading. Each day would be only 50% accurate. Today 100%, Tomorrow 50%, Next day 25%, next day 12.5%, next 6.25%.
So, the 4 day forecast has less than 7% chance of being true.
So, the 4 day forecast has less than 7% chance of being true.
Feb 13, 2021 12:21:18 #
Mauwehu
Loc: Norwalk Ct
To every life a little rain must fall....and I wonder yes I wonder who will stop the rain. Any creedance to that?
Feb 13, 2021 12:44:04 #
Feb 13, 2021 13:33:55 #
D Ryb wrote:
Predicting the weather is like predicting, what you’re wife is going to do when she’s mad
or even when she ain't mad
Feb 13, 2021 14:55:35 #
Slyclops
Loc: Santa Rosa, CA
I fish out of Bodega Bay CA. I have found the NOAA Weather reports to be about 50%-75% accurate out about 5 days, after that not so much. The rain you can deal with, but the 20-30 MPH winds could be a rough ride unless you got a big boat. Your friend is in the Coast Guard, so he shouldn't get sea sick, HaHa...I agree with everyone else, go with plan "A", but have a plan "B" ready just in case..Have fun!
Feb 13, 2021 18:12:56 #
The day before yesterday the weather wizards all but guaranteed we would have 5" of snow yesterday. They were only off 4 1/2" as we only had a skiff. That was for a 12 hour forecast. I try to read between the lines.
Roy
Roy
Feb 14, 2021 01:30:11 #
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